Weigh your decisions

In today's world, decision-making in tech often seems driven by one primary goal: make sure you have the data to back up every move. The rise of data-driven culture has brought many benefits, but there's also a hidden cost: sometimes we wait too long, trying to make sure we're making the right choice, only to find we've missed an opportunity to just do something and learn in the process.

Level 1 vs. Level 2 Decisions

Jeff Bezos once shared an interesting take on decision-making. He categorizes decisions as Level 1 or Level 2. Level 1 decisions are like "one-way doors"—once you make them, it's difficult or impossible to reverse them. These are high-stakes, major moves that require careful thought. On the other hand, Level 2 decisions are like "two-way doors"—they can be rolled back easily if they don't go as planned. They're lower risk, and you can adjust as needed.

Teresa Torres, in her book Continuous Discovery Habits, talks about something similar: one-way doors versus two-way doors. She emphasizes that for decisions that are reversible (those two-way doors), it's often better to make a choice, act on it, and see what happens rather than waiting until you have "enough data." The reality is that in those situations, we learn more by doing and observing the results than by analyzing a small sample size to try and predict the outcome.

Waiting for Data: The Risk of Inaction

The data-driven approach is great for reducing risks, but it’s important to remember that not all decisions need that level of caution. When we treat every choice like a Level 1 decision, we paralyze progress. We start waiting for the perfect data set, the perfect insight, and we end up losing valuable time that could have been used to experiment and gather real feedback.

Take, for example, the decision to roll out a new feature. If it's something that can be easily reversed or adjusted based on user feedback—like changing a button’s color or adding a small improvement to user navigation—waiting weeks for enough A/B testing data to feel "secure" can end up doing more harm than good. You learn more by releasing it, watching user reactions, and adapting quickly.

On the other hand, when making decisions that are harder to roll back, like committing to a fundamental shift in architecture or launching a product in a new market, it makes sense to take the time, gather more data, and make sure all the bases are covered.

Learning by Doing: Examples of Two-Way Doors

Let's take an example from a product perspective. Imagine you’re considering adding a new feature to an app that helps users save time. You could spend months surveying users, collecting feedback, and trying to assess the impact of adding this feature. Or, you could just build a simple MVP version of it, release it to a small group of users, and see what happens. If it works, great—you can improve it. If it doesn’t, you roll it back, gather feedback, and try again. This is a classic two-way door decision. You learn by doing, not by endless planning.

In my own experience, some of the most valuable lessons have come from decisions where I wasn't entirely sure but felt confident enough that if it didn’t work, we could adjust. Instead of getting stuck in analysis paralysis, moving forward led to quick learning, and the iteration process helped us refine the product more effectively than any amount of initial data gathering could have.

Balancing the Two Types of Decisions

The key is to know when you’re facing a Level 1 or Level 2 decision. Are you choosing something that is difficult to undo, or is it an experiment that will teach you more by simply trying it out? The current obsession with being fully data-driven often treats every decision as if it’s irreversible, when in reality, a lot of the things we do in product development are two-way doors.

In the end, progress over perfection is a principle that should guide a lot of our choices—especially when they’re the kind we can iterate on later. Data-driven decisions are powerful, but only if we don’t let them get in the way of learning by doing.

So, before diving into the next decision, ask yourself: Is this a one-way door or a two-way door? If it's the latter, maybe it's time to take a breath, make the choice, and adjust as you go.